新兴市场央行继续收紧货币政策,以应对新的通胀风险。提前加息允许维持(秘鲁)甚至放慢加息步伐(巴西)。但其他国家(波兰、乌拉圭、斯里兰卡)必须加快步伐。
新兴市场加息——激进,但通货膨胀也是如此
作者:Natalia Gurushina
新兴市场固定收益策略首席经济学家
Van Eck Associates Corporation
新兴市场利率加息前置
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本周早些时候波兰的“超大”加息显然具有传染性。 由于通胀继续意外上行,乌拉圭 昨天也出现了同样令人印象深刻的 +125 个基点(预期为 75 个基点)的走势。斯里兰卡的政策利率几乎翻了一番,达到 13.5%, 原因是通胀飙升(首都科伦坡同比增长 18.7%)和货币迅速贬值(自 3 月初以来兑美元汇率下跌了 56%)导致大规模的街头抗议。加息是在议会批准一些财政措施后直接加息的,随后出现大量关于其他正统政策措施的头条新闻,这表明与国际货币基金组织的谈判正朝着正确的方向发展,并对政策制定产生影响。
新兴市场实际政策利率政策缓冲
现在, 巴西可能正在结束其加息周期,但总体紧缩程度非常“激进”。 特别是,巴西是极少数的新兴市场 (EM) 之一,其 实际政策利率 (通过跟踪和预期通胀进行调整 )现在为正值。此外,基于预期通胀的实际政策利率高于中性(见下图),即紧缩性。那是激进的。这就是我们今天应该审视的上行通胀意外的背景。是的,这令人失望(同比增长 11.3%),扩散指数仍然很高(76%),但应该为通货紧缩铺平道路的政策已经到位,并将滞后影响价格。此外,货币最近升值了很多,这也应该有助于减少未来的通胀压力 。
新兴市场加息步伐不同
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在新兴市场的其他地方, 秘鲁保持了加息步伐 (可观的 +50 个基点),看起来 印度正在为加息做准备。央行上调了通胀预期,并为其利率走廊设置了更高的下限。在拉丁美洲, 智利的 通胀意外大幅上行(同比增长 9.4%)表明 ,尽管 3 月份出现鸽派意外,但现在谈论放缓加息步伐还为时过早。央行的会议纪要将于下周公布,应该是重要的解读。敬请关注!
图表一览:巴西实际政策利率不再为负
资料来源:VanEck Research;彭博有限合伙公司