The bond market is rallying, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropping to 4.26%, marking a major turnaround after a challenging year. This comes as investors anticipate the end of the Federal Reserve’s rate-tightening cycle. Factors such as a moderating labor market and a forecast for a milder GDP report have contributed to this shift. Bond traders now expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates, with these changes influencing future investment strategies.
The bond market witnessed its best month in almost 40 years in November due to a shift in yields. Hafiz Noordin, VP and Director for Active Fixed Income Portfolio Management at TD Asset Management, attributes the strong performance to missed inflation targets and slightly weaker labor market data. The disinflationary trend could potentially continue into next year, hinting at a favorable environment for bonds.
Treasury yields have reached a 15-year peak due to the Fed’s significant rate hikes. Amid market instability and interest rate volatility, BondBloxx, a fixed income investment manager, offers assistance with diverse strategies. It provides eight U.S. Treasury ETFs targeting different Treasury durations. BondBloxx, launched in October 2021, currently supervises over $2 billion in assets across U.S.-listed ETFs.
While fears of a looming recession persist, treasury ETFs could provide the portfolios with a cushion against any economic downturns. With most treasuries yielding around 5%, BondBloxx, which offers eight duration-specific U.S. Treasury ETFs, could be a helpful instrument. BondBloxx, hailed as “innovative” in fixed-income ETF provision, currently manages over $2 billion across 20 U.S-listed ETFs.
The VanEck Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF (HYEM) offers investors a 6.5% yield and potential for dividend growth. Despite mediocre returns amid rising market interest rates, the fund has outperformed most of its peers due to its strong dividends. As interest rates stabilize, performance and dividends should improve. The fund’s high-yield characteristic does present risks, but its diversified exposure across various emerging markets balances out the risk factor.
The Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF (VCSH) provides diversified exposure to short-term, investment-grade corporate bonds. Despite being a solid investment, VCSH is slightly less diversified and riskier than other ETFs like Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (JAAA). While it offers a higher income, VCSH underperforms in comparison to JAAA, which offers stronger dividends, higher credit quality, and lower interest rate risk. The investment decision hinges on future Federal Reserve policy actions.
The US Treasury 12 Month Bill ETF (OBIL) allows investors to access T-Bills without having a Treasury account, offering stable returns and high liquidity through a focus on the 12-month T-Bill. OBIL mirrors the yield performance of the ICE BofA US 12-Month Treasury Bill Index, rolling into the latest issue each month. It carries no credit risk, but potential investors should be aware of the interest rate risk and lack of diversification due to its single asset focus.
Fixed income ETF demand in 2023 has been dominated by Treasury ETFs, with a solid performance from alternatives like collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). CLO investment, offering attractive yields and strong risk profiles, is securitized, predominantly senior secured loans with good creditworthiness. The largest CLO-focused ETFs, such as Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF and VanEck CLO ETF, have seen a significant increase in assets and growth rate.
PIMCO’s economic forecast for the next 6-12 months predicts slowing growth, slowing inflation, and a potential mild recession. Based on this, the firm emphasizes diversification, quality, and precaution, strongly favoring fixed income in their multi-asset portfolios. They maintain a neutral position on equities. The equity risk premium is at its lowest in over 20 years, suggesting bonds offer better opportunities than equities. Within equities, PIMCO prefers themes and sectors with growth potential, such as semiconductors and renewable energy.
DWS has introduced a set of four target-maturity fixed income ETFs in Europe, each with a management fee of 0.12%. These ETFs acquire bonds with specific maturity years (2027, 2029, 2031, and 2033), holding them to maturity. They help investors manage duration exposure and enable portfolio customization to meet specific cash requirements. The ETFs meet EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, excluding companies involved in certain controversial sectors.
10-year Treasury yields have retreated from near 5% to around 4.52%, a positive sign for bond investors and suggesting analyst expectations of renewed interest in U.S. government debt. This trend could benefit aggregate bond ETFs, notably Vanguard’s BND which experienced a nearly 1% increase last month. Some believe persistent issues impacting bonds in 2023 may not recur next year due to factors like spending sequester and hiring returning to pre-pandemic levels.
In October, VettaFi’s Income Strategy Symposium covered topics like asset allocation considerations from Fed policy and others. It found that credit/duration exposure (51%) is most important for fixed income ETF selection, contrary to Schwab’s study, emphasizing total cost (58%). Rising or falling interest rates affect popularity, as seen with SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF and iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF’s performance.
The general bond market faces another year of weakness, but high yield municipal bonds, specifically VanEck High Yield Muni ETF, present an attractive investment. Despite a 1.07% dip in the ICE AMT-Free US National Municipal Index, municipal bonds remain robust due to strong state-level tax collections. High yields coupled with low fees, particularly in fast-growing, low-tax states like Texas and Florida, make them lucrative for investors.
India will join the EM local currency benchmark in 2024, after JP Morgan announced the inclusion of specific local currency bonds from India to its GBI-EM suite of indices. The integration, the biggest reconstitution since China’s in 2020, will expand the index yield, extend duration, and shift regional exposure towards Asia. The move will draw an expected $20-$40 billion of near-term inflows, boosting India’s economy and providing the government with a new financing source.
