Investment-grade municipal bonds showed minimal movement in the first half of 2024, but could see a resurgence in the second half. The ALPS Intermediate Municipal Bond ETF (MNBD) may benefit from potential muni bond recovery, especially with anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. Historical data and muni-to-Treasury ratio support the case for munis. Demand for tax-exempt income remains strong.
The VanEck Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF (HYEM) has shown potential for pleasant surprises, outperforming the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Despite being perceived as riskier, HYEM offers extensive perks including yield pickup, higher quality, and diversification benefits, making it an appealing option for investors seeking strong income opportunities in emerging markets.
In the first half of 2024, fixed income ETFs accounted for 29% of U.S. industry flows, despite representing 18% of the asset base. VettaFi recently hosted an event covering investment styles and analyzed advisor responses. Advisors are exploring various fixed income ETFs to manage credit and duration risks effectively. Examples include AGG, LQD, VCLT, BSCY, JNK, CLOZ, SCHO, USFR, and TLT.
Fixed income behaves differently during Fed interest rate cycles. Historical cutting periods saw lower bond yields across the curve with steepening spreads, resulting in solid total returns. Conversely, hiking cycles led to higher yields and flatter spreads, resulting in lower total returns. “On hold” periods saw rangebound yields and solid total returns. Recent data suggests a coming rate cut, favoring defensive positioning.
Corporate bond futures provide more precise risk management for investors. Investment grade bonds correlate with Treasuries, but the correlation can drop during market stress. High-yield bonds correlate more with the S&P 500. Futures enable scaling of risk exposures and offer optionality, reflecting the dependence on corporate health. These dynamics shape the economics of corporate bond markets.
Many investors are missing out on opportunities in short-duration bonds by sitting on cash. The Natixis Loomis Sayles Short Duration Income ETF (LSST) offers a 5% 30-day SEC yield, providing potential income with limited risk. Short-duration bonds offer higher yield than Treasuries, complement money market exposure, and are managed by an experienced team.
Investors and markets are optimistic about a potential interest rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch Tool predicts a 93.3% chance of a one-quarter rate cut. Despite enthusiasm, Morgan Stanley advises caution in fixed income, recommending a neutral position. The Eaton Vance Short Duration Income ETF (EVSD) is suggested for income with lower interest rate risk and increased flexibility.
The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) is sensitive to rate changes. Inflation remains high due to PPI effects and labor market strength. SHY has zero credit risk and a 1.8-year effective duration. The yield curve expects rate cuts, but uncertainties exist. Inflation is likely to persist, impacting investment decisions. Consider global macro commentary for investment insights.
U.S. Treasuries are considered relatively safe, but can be affected by interest rate changes. To mitigate this risk, consider floating rate notes (FRNs) like USFR. These bonds are less volatile and provide potential for higher returns than traditional Treasuries. With their interest rates resetting frequently, FRNs offer lower rate risk.
Investor demand for corporate bonds is increasing as businesses issue more debt, from investment-grade to high yield, ahead of potential rate cuts. The macroeconomic environment may be tipping in favor of rate cuts, leading to record issuance of investment-grade debt. The Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF offers broad exposure to this market.
In the corporate bond world, there are investment-grade and non-investment-grade (junk) bonds. Junk bonds carry higher risk but also offer higher yields. The Eaton Vance High Yield ETF (EVHY) is an example of an exchange traded fund that capitalizes on this. Despite economic concerns, EVHY’s management and reduced recession risk make it a compelling option.
Corporate profits are on the rise, surpassing analyst expectations for the first quarter and signaling potential for even greater growth in the second quarter. This positive outlook may attract fixed income investors to corporate bonds. Vanguard offers a range of corporate bond ETF options for varying maturity dates, providing potential yield-focused and rate-risk mitigating choices.
Wealthfront introduces an Automated Bond Ladder to optimize US Treasury usage for higher interest. This liquid, low-risk product offers greater tax efficiency compared to traditional accounts, providing an ideal balance for investment portfolios. The platform’s automated approach simplifies the process and reflects a broader trend of increased interest in US Treasuries.
Renowned bond-fund manager Bill Gross challenges the appeal of bond investments, questioning the motives of bond-fund managers and advocating cautiousness in their predictions. He predicts a struggle for the bond market, advocating for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. While Gross stresses a bleak outlook, the author remains agnostic but shares Gross’s skepticism about current bond prices.
