J.P. Morgan Asset Management (JPMAM) has launched the JPMorgan Active Bond ETF (JBND), aiming to deliver total return from a managed portfolio of U.S. investment-grade bonds. JBND, focused on securitized debt, seeks to outperform the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index in a three- to five-year market cycle. The fund joins a growing suite of active ETFs from JPMAM, which has seen rising interest and nearly $1 billion inflows to the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) in the past month.
The iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) continues to be a risky duration bet amid the likelihood of a sustained higher interest rate environment and possible further hikes. The impact of higher rates, particularly on corporate earnings and restructuring efforts, will only start being substantial from 2024 onwards. TLH remains an efficient bond ETF option, but now is not the time to go long duration due to persistent inflation and a tight job market.
Bond ETFs comprise 20% of industry assets, with over 40% share of net inflows. Many advisors prefer active or mixed strategies to core bond allocation. Various benefits of passive and active core bond funds are highlighted; the former includes low costs and broad market exposure, while the latter often simplifies decision-making by outsourcing to experts. Specific ETFs and their performance are also discussed, such as Vanguard Total Bond Index ETF and iShares Core Aggregate Bond ETF.
The iShares 0-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (SLQD) primarily invests in short-duration corporate bonds, limiting both credit and duration exposure. As a result, SLQD has historically generated a mere 1.6% return p.a., not sufficiently countering inflation. The ETF is deemed unfavorable for its inability to deliver robust returns under various economic conditions – economic robustness leading to inflation and raised interest rates, economic weakening leading to wider credit spreads, or a recession.
The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) has declined over 28% since late 2021 but offers an attractive yield near 6%. The fund’s portfolio consists of low default risk, investment-grade corporate bonds, which have historically outperformed U.S. treasuries. Despite being likely to decline in economic recessions, the LQD’s downturns are usually temporary, making it appealing for potential capital appreciation and interest income.
The Federal Reserve’s commitment to return inflation to its target level implies that there will be no immediate interest rate cuts, making short-term treasuries a good investment opportunity. The SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF is highlighted in favoring rising short-term rates. Further rate increases could pressure the equity market, presenting short-term bonds as a more desirable option than dividend stocks.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields have recently risen, reaching the highest rates since 2009, hinting at potential returns of 6-7% per year over the next decade. While historical and current economic factors indicate possible persisting inflation, consumer expectations and market indicators suggest tame inflation. TIPS offer diversification benefits and inflation protection in an all-weather portfolio, though future performance may be impacted by various economic scenarios, including benign inflation or deflation.
In August, fallen angels underperformed the broader high yield market and have lagged year-to-date, largely due to outflows from high yield corporates and a stronger performance from lower credit quality issuers backed by robust US growth data and better earnings reports. However, potential scenarios such as weakening corporate profits and a more risk-averse environment could rekindle price performance for fallen angels. Factors that impacted the price performance this year include the scarcity of fallen angels and their longer duration.
Investors are increasingly drawn to the U.S. Treasury market, particularly short-term bonds with an annual yield of about 5%, the highest since June 2007. These government-issued bonds are highly regarded for their safety, and dividends from bond ETFs provide steady monthly income. Several ETFs, including those focusing on U.S. Treasury securities, allow investors to generate substantial and secure returns, especially during global market instability.
Current conditions suggest investors should consider quality investment-grade corporate bonds over high-yield corporate debt. The Markit iBoxx USD Liquid High Yield Index decline suggests a weakening in the high-yield sector, whereas ETFs like Calvert Ultra-Short Investment Grade ETF (CVSB) remain attractive and resilient. Increasing signs of deterioration in the junk bond space further support this stance.
Despite being considered unexciting, the bond market saw heightened volatility and opportunities in 2023 due to bank failures, a hawkish Fed, disinflation and higher yields. The Fed paused its rate hikes, with expectations of easing policies in 2024. Despite short-term market insecurity, diversified fixed income investments are recommended for long-term goals.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has fallen -50% from its highs, and I believe it will fall a further -10% below its inception price at the minimum.TLT fund flows show persistently growing inflows into the ETF in the face of sharply falling prices. Investors are complacent that TLT has bottomed out, and that faith looks misplaced.Bond yields and the USD are on very resilient uptrends, showing no signs of topping out yet. We are likely to see capitulation in TLT before the ETF bottoms out.
SPBO offers an attractive yield of 6% and a high-quality investment grade portfolio.The fund has declined significantly in 2022 and is still exhibiting weakness in 2023, but income investors should see this as a buying opportunity.Market fears, such as an economic recession, may negatively impact investment grade corporate bonds, but investors should take advantage of the opportunity to accumulate more shares.
High yield ETFs like JEPI and JEPQ are popular among passive income investors for their simplicity and attractive income streams.Moreover, JEPI and JEPQ offer considerable exposure to technology.We compare them side by side and offer our take on which is the better pick for passive income investors.
