Tag: ETF economic and industrial analysis

Recessions come in many different varieties, and if a recession does occur, we think it will be relatively short and mild. In order to tame high inflation in this scenario, the Fed would be forced to raise interest rates

Two issues that pop out most frequently are: (1) share of inflation that can be attributed to global factors (=whether central banks can address price pressures without slowing the economy too much); and (2) coordination between monetary and fiscal policies (=growth/inflation

However, I personally think the outlook for emerging market debt is still uncertain and is highly dependent on future inflation and on what the Fed is likely to do about it. The iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets

Flight to safety pushes defensive sectors too high while leaving growth stocks attractively priced.

While the factors underlying the bond market rout aren’t unusual, it is the speed and extent of the losses and the accompanying jump in yields that are unique to the circumstances of the post-pandemic economic

But here’s something you may not know: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which issues the monthly consumer price index (CPI), has changed its methodology for measuring inflation more than twice over the

Inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical risks, and other things to keep your eye on.

The decrease reflects the impact of sanctions on Russian production and exports, offset partially by the expected response from other producers, which in turn will be partially offset by oil demand destruction related to