Tag: ETF economic and industrial analysis

Our biases can arise at any time, but given today’s market environment, a few especially harmful biases can be scarcity mindset, action bias, and loss aversion. During times of market volatility, if investors don’t calmly

Despite the drop in second-quarter gross domestic product, which measures business activity across the country, the U.S. economy was not in a recession in the first half of 2022. There’s very little reason to

The ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF ( NYSEARCA: TTT ) product is a leveraged instrument that moves higher when the back end of the yield curve rises on a short-term basis. While the US central

Historically, the ISM has fallen below 43 — a level typically consistent with double-digit earnings declines — during prior bear markets that came after Fed tightening cycles. This means the effects of tightening

Inflation and interest rates matter, but so too does the direction and evolution of fixed income, or what’s happening in crypto — not the meltdown, lots of ink is already being spilled on that — but this increasing

Since Russia and Ukraine are both major commodity producers, the war’s main impact on the rest of the world in the coming months will probably be continued supply disruptions for key materials like crude oil,

This is exactly what has the markets fearful; i.e., the Fed will raise rates too high and ultimately push the economy into a recession. Jobless claims appear to have a good track record as a leading indicator of

In our 2022 Secular Outlook, “Reaching for Resilience,” we discuss these and other key trends affecting the global economy, markets, and fiscal and monetary policies that inform our five-year outlook and portfolio positioning. This blog post summarizes our views.

May’s soaring inflation coupled with inflation expectations was the catalyst for the 0.75% interest rate increase at the June Federal Reserve meeting, explained Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his testimony before

In this special report, Morningstar’s experts discuss how to think about inflation today, examine your own personal inflation rate, and safeguard against inflation’s corrosive effect on your investments. While some

Right now, we know that volatility is high, meaning that markets are very emotional. In the top half of the chart, the green background indicates a “bullish” (low risk) market environment; yellow is “transitional” (rising risk);

And then, for most people, we think of human capital, it’s often a little bit more bond like, than stock like, and we arrive at that conclusion by thinking about the nature of the cash flows of that saving series. So, has

The Fed is plainly hawkish and its plans to tighten monetary conditions via balance sheet reduction and rate hikes are included in their forward guidance. In addition, even if the U.S. economy manages to avoid a recession in 2023, earnings estimates are likely to be negatively revised