Tag: ETF economic and industrial analysis

Uruguay’s central bank stayed on hold yesterday, but noted that the policy rate path will depend on the normalization of inflation expectations. The market expectations for emerging markets (EM) do not look overly

“The apparent slowdown in [developed market] interest rate hiking and a more favorable outlook have allowed some [emerging markets] to go back to issue fresh debt in the market,” wrote IIF economist Jonathan

It doesn’t look like the market believes in longer-term high rates from the Fed. Following an expected 0.25% rate hike, Jerome Powell gave a standard speech that didn’t seem to shock market participants.

We think right now business travel is probably three fourths of the way back to where it was prepandemic, but that’s up from less than half of a recovery a year ago. There might be some displacement from video conferencing, but we think 2023 is a year that looks to see continuing

This follows the large runup in bond yields starting in early 2022, as markets began to price in expectations of fed-funds rate hikes. Altogether, while the Fed is projecting a year-end 2023 fed-funds rate

We think private markets – equity, debt, and secondaries – offer particularly abundant opportunities for those ready to step in with long-term capital. So, in our view, this is where steps one and two take us: a

“Despite the sharp decrease in gas use, we do not currently have a drastic drop in industrial and manufacturing production in Europe, mainly thanks to various energy efficiency operations, for example by changing

The 2023 China re-opening will lead to more travel and short-term consumption splurges but much fewer long-term household investments like housing. Even though the one-year performance is similar, Chinese

As I wrote in a recent article on the United States Brent Oil Fund ( BNO ), one of the largest consequences of a China re-opening is going to be a surge in demand for energy commodities like crude oil and gasoline:

The good news is active investors can help find companies that can still prosper even in these challenging times, and by identifying those companies and investing in them, we can set up portfolios for success

China’s Leading Indicators Point to Declining Producer Prices If we get around to late 2023 and the labor market is blowing through the Fed’s 4.4% unemployment rate forecast, I think that will take people by

So, try to imagine a world where the Fed can deeply invert the yield curve to fight the inflationary shock, without causing a recession. The Fed projected in December 2021 a 4% GDP growth for 2022, with the 2.6%

I think one of the positives that I saw this year, which wasn’t discussed a whole lot, but actually, if you track that CPI-E number, which is the Consumer Price Index Experimental to track our senior spending, that

In the next section, we will look at the risk of a monetary policy miscalculation on the global economic outlook and its subsequent impact on the VTI fund. Increasing inflationary pressures around the world have