The US economy exceeded expectations in September, adding 336,000 jobs, nearly double what was anticipated. As a result, investors are concerned about potential prolonged high interest rates. This fear prompted a decline in stock market indices and a surge in bond yields. Experts say stronger-than-expected job report makes the case for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes this year.
Uncertainty in China’s property market and local government financing could result in banking failures, but experts believe systemic crisis risks are low due to central government intervention. ECB’s quantitative tightening might bring back European debt sustainability fears. US commercial real estate also poses a risk to financial stability and the economy, especially with smaller entities that account for around 70% of lending to the commercial real estate sector under considerable stress.
S0, the Commerce Department shows a very strong result for the third quarter of 2023, greater than 3.0 percent, followed by two quarters around 0.5 percent…but not negative…and then growth rates exceeding 1.0 percent,
Despite rising long-term interest rates, the major market averages bounced back yesterday to end a four-day losing streak. The 10-year Treasury yield pierced 4.54%, which is a level not seen since 2007, while the dollar strengthened to its March peak. Oil prices were off modestly from their 2023
The bottom line is that the Fed remains data-dependent, but that means any good news (like rising GDP or higher energy prices) could mean another rate increase. Russia’s three big Arctic wells were all developed with Western energy companies, like Exxon Mobil ( XOM ), so without continuing oil service
Bell: A lot of what I’m reading says climate change is the just the biggest global threat in general, but also to the global economy. While I’m on a roll here there’s lots of climate change or clean energy ETFs to consider.
After BlackRock was allowed to bail out its own ETF funds with the Fed’s newly minted going direct funny money, iShares surged yet again, surpassing $3 trillion in assets under management last year.
With the Fed put withdrawn from markets and rates likely to remain high for an extended period of time, longer-term correlation between equities and bonds could spell disaster for traditional portfolios. Strategies like managed futures that carry low and often negative correlations to both
In particular, the performance of the S&P GSCI the past 50 years has shown that during times of heavy inflation, getting commodities exposure has been a defensively sound move. While there are various
Whereas the former is investing in new airport infrastructure and modernizing facilities to meet ambitious climate goals, the latter is choosing to combat emissions by restricting the number of flights. Here in San Antonio, home to
In 2022, the topic was “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy” The Fed Chair Powell signaled at the 2022 conference a more aggressive monetary policy and specifically suggested that the US economy would have
And I would again argue you’ll see that in, you know, how technology is playing out, we had a very long period where higher-paid employees they were having a different impact than lower-wage, and now you are actually seeing a lot of growth in the lower-wage percentage of the economy, which I
In a year that has seen active ETFs accelerate notably, institutional investor interest has grown in turn. The ETF manager survey, “ETF 2027: A world of new possibilities,” found that “nearly a quarter” of institutionals said they are
That is likely to continue, in our view, which suggests we’ll see the broader economy slow in the months ahead. While business sentiment has declined, consumer confidence has surged higher in recent months and is now above its long-term average ( Display ).
