Tag: ETF economic and industrial analysis

Historically, the ISM has fallen below 43 — a level typically consistent with double-digit earnings declines — during prior bear markets that came after Fed tightening cycles. This means the effects of tightening

Inflation and interest rates matter, but so too does the direction and evolution of fixed income, or what’s happening in crypto — not the meltdown, lots of ink is already being spilled on that — but this increasing

Since Russia and Ukraine are both major commodity producers, the war’s main impact on the rest of the world in the coming months will probably be continued supply disruptions for key materials like crude oil,

This is exactly what has the markets fearful; i.e., the Fed will raise rates too high and ultimately push the economy into a recession. Jobless claims appear to have a good track record as a leading indicator of

In our 2022 Secular Outlook, “Reaching for Resilience,” we discuss these and other key trends affecting the global economy, markets, and fiscal and monetary policies that inform our five-year outlook and portfolio positioning. This blog post summarizes our views.

May’s soaring inflation coupled with inflation expectations was the catalyst for the 0.75% interest rate increase at the June Federal Reserve meeting, explained Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his testimony before

In this special report, Morningstar’s experts discuss how to think about inflation today, examine your own personal inflation rate, and safeguard against inflation’s corrosive effect on your investments. While some

Right now, we know that volatility is high, meaning that markets are very emotional. In the top half of the chart, the green background indicates a “bullish” (low risk) market environment; yellow is “transitional” (rising risk);

And then, for most people, we think of human capital, it’s often a little bit more bond like, than stock like, and we arrive at that conclusion by thinking about the nature of the cash flows of that saving series. So, has

The Fed is plainly hawkish and its plans to tighten monetary conditions via balance sheet reduction and rate hikes are included in their forward guidance. In addition, even if the U.S. economy manages to avoid a recession in 2023, earnings estimates are likely to be negatively revised

It is difficult to survive in the land of thematic funds. During the 15 years through Dec. 31, 2021, more than 80% of thematic funds worldwide closed their doors. Most thematic funds prove to be one-hit wonders or don’t live long enough to see their investment theses pan out. Timing is a crucial element for thematic funds, and merely staying open long enough to have their time in the limelight can be critical to their long-run viability. 

The MSCI ACWI US Small Cap Growth Index declined over 10%, while its value counterpart was only down about 2.5%, highlighting the impact of increasing economic uncertainty from higher inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sector and geographic allocations are supplemental information