投资策略的制定可从以下方面思考:
主动管理、被动管理或混合式。
主动管理指基金经理和管理团队利用自己的知识和对市场独特的洞察力,主动地进行股票的买卖交易,获得比整体市场更好的业绩表现。
被动管理相信市场自身的效率。认为证券股票的内在价值通过有效率的市场,充分表现在价格上。人为的选择不能获得比市场更加好的表现。有大量的研究表明主动选择股票逢低买入逢高卖出, 不能长期持续地超越市场表现(beat the market)
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https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/index-vs-active
ETF基本上是基于被动管理的指数型基金管理,不追求频繁的交易,只是定期地根据管理目标再平衡投资组合。不追求超越市场标杆指数的业绩,力求用有限的成分股,匹配市场指数业绩。
个股的价值称为α,整体市场的价值称为β。主动管理追求α,被动管理追求β。两者结合的混合策略为核心/卫星策略(core/satellite)
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/core-satellite-investing.asp
多元化投资在多种资产类型包括股票、债券和大宗商品
投资组合都要在股票和债券之间保持合理的比例。在经济周期的扩张期,股票持有大部分比例。在经济周期的通胀衰退期,债券的比例会增加。大宗商品的价格随商业周期大幅变化。
资产板块的轮转投资(sector rotation)
整个商业周期可以分为上升扩展阶段和衰退下降阶段,每个阶段可以进一步细分区间。每个区间都有适合投资的资产板块。
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以下链接来自Fidelity网站,是很好的介绍。
投资只涉足本国还是兼顾海外
本地市场和海外市场在同一时间内股票业绩会有很大的不同。ETF提供了在海外市场进行投资的机会。发达国家的经济增长停滞的时候,海外市场比如说新兴国家的股市可能有高增长。
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即使是同为发达国家,美国、欧洲、日本同一时间内股市的表现差异很大。日经指数从2012年七月份的八千六百点到2013年五月份的一万五千点,再到2015年四月份的两万点。德国股市从2014年十月份的八千五百点到2015年四月份在一万两千点。原因都是定量宽松的金融政策,但是发生的时间不一样。
不用说,个人的年龄、收入、对风险的偏好、生活安排,都应在策略制定时加以考虑。
形成成熟的投资策略
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深思熟虑这些问题后,自己的投资策略逐步清晰,形成雏形。可用类似于mission/vision的表述做如下示范性的陈述
“我的投资策略倾向于被动管理。主要用ETF指数型基金,一般不通过选择个股或购买共同基金作为投资的手段。
“core/satellite 的混合型策略可能考虑。运用指数型基金为核心,主动型管理资金为“卫星”。
“我的投资组合包括股票和债券。其相对比例将会根据商业周期和经济的发展状况做相应的调整。
“我的投资策略运用资产板块轮转,在商业周期的不同阶段选择不同的市场资产板块”
“在投资本国内市场的同时,我也会考虑投资海外市场,包括欧洲、日本发达国家市场和新兴国家的市场。
当对投资策略胸有成竹,手中又有各种ETF指数资金作选择时,乐高(LEGO)游戏就可以开始了。把指数资金当作building block, 创建、发展、维护投资组合(portfolio)
系列3将会涉及这方面的内容。