科技股表现落后,美国股市开始向价值股轮动

一年前美股触底后,科技股曾引领股市反弹,并连创新高。但随着经济活动回暖和新冠疫苗接种加快,市场对通胀的担忧在升温,政府债券收益率也攀升,股市开始向价值股轮动。

Original Post>

James Benedict / Caitlin McCabe2021年3月25日07:25 CST 更新

一年前,美国股市触底,标普500指数在短短23个交易日内暴跌34%,跌至谷底。

当时几乎没有人会想象得出市场随后的反弹势头,包括标普500指数从去年低点反弹后34次创下新高。尽管全球性的新冠疫情导致美国近55万人死亡,数百万人失业,并限制了经济活动,但股指却连创新高。

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这轮惊人涨势的背后有一系列因素,包括最初美国联邦储备委员会(简称:美联储)迅速采取紧急措施为金融市场和经济提供支持。这一系列因素推动美国股市脱离了2020年的低点,并拉开了成长股和科技股持续领涨的序幕。投资者去年重新涌入股市,抢购了那些有望从疫情中获益的公司股票。与突然面临不确定性的能源和零售等类股不同,一些分析师称赞科技股拥有巨大的增长潜力。

然而,这轮涨势最近陷入停滞,以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数短暂陷入回调,较近期高点下跌10%。自该指数不久前在2月12日创下纪录以来,成长股和科技股基本上陷入停滞。相比之下,包括能源和金融类股在内的其他类股则大幅上涨。

去年,人们相信新冠疫情加速了许多人预计会持续下去的趋势,这推升了投资者对科技股和成长股的兴趣。随着越来越多的消费者居家办公和在线上购物,投资者涌入了包括Zoom Video Communications Inc.、亚马逊公司(Amazon.com Inc., AMZN)、微软(Microsoft Corp., MSFT)和PayPal Holdings Inc.在内的股票。

与此同时,一些投资者担心踏空的心理帮助维持了成长股的涨势。电动汽车制造商特斯拉(Tesla Inc., TSLA)和蔚来汽车(Nio Inc., NIO)以及燃料电池公司Plug Power Inc.迅速成为投资者的心头好,这在一定程度上是因为激发了更多散户的兴趣。截至2月12日,这三只股票均较去年低点飙升了840%或更多。此后有所回落。

随着经济活动回暖和新冠疫苗接种加快,市场对通胀的担忧在升温,科技股和成长股最近的回调是在这一背景下发生的。政府债券收益率也攀升,基准10年期美国国债收益率一年多来首次升破了1.7%。

利率上升对成长型公司和科技公司来说尤其是个问题,原因之一是它们的收益预计更多来自未来。利率上升会增加当前利润相对于未来利润的价值。

投资者关注点的转变帮助推动了对经济增长更敏感的公司股票的上涨,随着经济更全面开放,这些公司有望受益。

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自2月12日以来,衡量大型价值股表现的罗素1000价值股指数攀升了2.7%,与之对应的衡量成长股表现的罗素1000成长股指数则下跌了5.3%。

据道琼斯市场数据(Dow Jones Market Data)对今年以来截至3月23日数据的分析显示,罗素1000价值股指数跑赢罗素1000成长股指数的幅度为2001年以来最大。

在最近向价值股的轮动中获益最多的类股包括金融和能源类股。在标普500指数的11个类股中,这两个类股2月12日以来的表现最为强劲。

油价上涨提振了能源类股,投资者预计需求将持续回升。与此同时,金融类股则受益于债券收益率的上升,债券收益率上升有可能让银行提高贷款利率。