维多利亚的秘密改头换面,但不只表面

在维多利亚的秘密作为一家独立的公司上市后,该公司股价出现跳升,但目前来看其估值依然便宜。

Jinjoo Lee2021年8月10日14:40 CST 更新

Original Post>

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在经历多年的销售下滑以及差点发生丑闻之后,维多利亚的秘密(Victoria's Secret & Co., VSCO)正摘下其超模的翅膀,独自前行。对投资者来说,好消息是:该公司的股价似乎还没有达到见顶的高度。

从L Brands (LB)分拆出来之后,维多利亚的秘密上周二正式作为一家独立的公司开始交易。该公司股价自上市以来已累计上涨25%,市值达到50亿美元左右。不过,以未来12个月的预期每股收益计算,该股的市盈率只有八倍,明显低于Hanesbrands (HBI)和American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)的市盈率。根据欧睿国际(Euromonitor International)的数据,Hanesbrands和American Eagle Outfitters在北美女性内衣市场的份额分别排名第二和第三。而维多利亚的秘密位居第一。

该品牌在6月发布了两则引人注目的公告,包括由一群活动家组成的品牌大使名单,他们取代了该公司衣着暴露的内衣模特。该公司还设立了一个由七名成员组成的新董事会,其中六名是女性。但值得关注的是幕后工作。该公司已悄悄地开展了一段时间的工作,改变了其过时的营销信息,降低了库存,并暂停了促销活动。该公司还恢复了其受欢迎的泳装业务,并关闭了效益不佳的门店。过去属于维多利亚的秘密严格禁区的孕妇装和塑身衣现在也开始销售了。

对于那些想知道这些努力是否在重新赢得顾客青睐的人来说,答案是肯定的。该公司第一财季的销售额超过2019年疫情爆发前的同期,逆转了疫情前几年的下滑趋势,令人瞩目。而且这些都是在2020年永久关闭241家门店并缩减营销费用的情况下取得的。第一财季的调整后营业利润率从2019年的1%攀升至15%,盈利能力已恢复到上一次实现增长的2016年的水平。该公司第一财季的营业利润率仅略低于耐克公司(Nike Inc. Cl B, NKE)和Lululemon (LULU)最近财季的营业利润率。

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ThirdLove、Lively、Negative和Cupp等越来越多的竞争者已引发大量关注,这些公司都比维多利亚的秘密更早地接受了舒适性和包容性。关于舒适性和包容性的宣传在十年前是新鲜事物,但现在已成为是品牌的一个先决条件,而不是一个明显的特色。一场社交媒体营销战(在直接面向消费者的新品牌之间经常发生)很可能导致所谓的反维多利亚的秘密品牌遭受一些损害。

尽管自2016年以来,维多利亚的秘密在北美女性内衣市场的份额每年都在下降,但并没有失去其领先地位。该公司的知名度和广告费足以重新吸引更多顾客的青睐,尤其是在该公司高管团队现在似乎对消费者偏好变化具有超强意识的情况下。该公司今年预计将把收入的约5%(相当于3.5亿美元)用于营销,这一金额远高于ThirdLove在疫情前1.25亿美元的估计收入。

在更多人知道这个秘密之前,赶快行动吧。