尽管存在诸多不确定因素,但投资者应为美联储在11月初明确承诺缩表做好准备。
Justin Lahart2021年8月30日18:35 CST 更新
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归根结底,德尔塔(Delta)变异毒株很可能不会对美国经济造成太大阻碍。相反,不断上升的疫苗接种率、加强针的推出以及针对年幼儿童的疫苗最终获批,可能只会令经济形势变得更好。而如果发生这种情况,美国联邦储备委员会(简称:美联储)可能最好是已开始减少债券购买量,至少给自己一个加息的选项。
但对于美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)来说,在上周五的演讲中发出承诺缩减购债规模的信息原本将是一件奇怪的事情。所以他没有这样做。直到一周前,人们还预计鲍威尔将会亲自出席怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年会发表演讲,但出于对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧,他以远程方式发表了演讲。
鲍威尔在演讲中指出,自美联储7月份会议以来,美国经济持续表现强劲,但德尔塔毒株的扩散也有所加剧。在7月份会议上,鲍威尔和美联储其他决策者认为在今年年底前开始缩表是合理的。
上周五还公布了有关美国经济形势的更多消息。美国商务部报告称,7月份消费者支出较6月份增长了0.3%,受到服务支出增长推动,其中航空运输、酒店住宿和现场娱乐等方面的支出有明显增长。报告还显示,美国商务部衡量消费物价水平的指标个人消费支出价格指数同比上涨4.2%,这也是美联储青睐的通胀指标。7月份不包括食品和能源项目的核心个人消费支出价格指数上涨了3.6%。虽然其中一些价格上涨可能是暂时的,但通胀率远远高于美联储2%的目标水平,这一点肯定是值得注意的。
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但很明显,8月份的经济形势并不那么景气。密歇根大学(University of Michigan)上周五公布,8月份消费者信心指数终值较7月份大幅下降。堪萨斯城联储报告称,其衡量本辖区8月份服务业活动的指标较7月份有所放缓,在接受其调查的公司中,有22%的公司称新冠病例的增加导致商业活动减少。
通过保持一定的模糊性,鲍威尔维持了美联储在今年年底前缩表的路径不变。鲍威尔在美联储9月份会议上明确承诺开始缩表的可能性不大,尽管该央行内部立场偏紧缩的人士一直鼓动要在9月份会议上作出承诺。但如果德尔塔毒株的蔓延开始减弱,投资者应为美联储在11月初会议上作出缩表承诺并在此后不久启动缩表做好准备。