众所周知,银行股和相关的交易所交易基金今年非常火爆。例如,景顺 KBW 银行 ETF(纳斯达克股票代码:KBWB)今年迄今上涨了 43.25%,并且没有显示出失去动力的迹象。
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KBWB 跟随广泛观察的 KBW 纳斯达克银行指数,在过去一个月上涨了近 4%,并保持在 52 周高点附近。这种看涨是值得注意的,因为银行收益在 2022 年及以后有多重利好因素。
“首先,预计美联储将开始加息,这将扩大银行在贷款利息和存款利息之间赚取的利差,”巴伦的卡尔顿英语报道。“奥本海默 (Oppenheimer) 的分析师指出,美国国债收益率曲线预计到 2023 年至少会加息一两次,并补充说,第一次加息对银行来说是最‘重要的’。”
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Oppenheimer 表示,对于 KBWB 投资者来说,这是一个有意义的消息,如果美联储两次提高借贷成本,那么这两次加息将使银行的净息差提高 5%。净息差衡量银行支付给储户的利息与资产(如贷款、信用卡等)赚取的利息之间的差额。
说到贷款,在冠状病毒大流行之后,贷款增长一直不温不火。事实上,银行去年被迫留出现金来支付不良贷款——这种情况最终并没有像美联储预期的那样可怕。现在,银行正在寻找促进贷款增长的途径,这可能会支持 2023 年的盈利增长。
“我们认为 2023 年贷款增长 6% 是有可能的,但 0% 的可能性很小。我们认为,到 2023 年加息很容易达到 100-200 个基点,但这种可能性不大,”奥本海默 (Oppenheimer) 分析师克里斯·科托夫斯基 (Chris Kotowski) 在巴伦 (Barron) 引用的一份报告中表示。
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除了 KBWB 的案例之外,还有一个熟悉的催化剂:银行股是有价值的。虽然这是一个经常被引用的催化剂,但银行确实仍然是值得信赖的价值投资。
“银行目前的预期 2022 年收益为 13.8 倍,有形账面价值为 1.8 倍,Truist 分析师周一在一份报告中写道。她补充说,该行业的 20 年高位中值估值是预期收益的 17.8 倍,是有形账面价值的 3.5 倍,这意味着有足够的上涨空间,”巴伦周刊表示