日本的软银集团可谓是过度投资助长科技股繁荣的缩影。随着科技股暴跌,软银无法避免与科技股共命运的局面。而且,该公司及其投资者的苦日子可能还在后头。
软银集团的科技大梦再次破灭
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软银集团周四公布,截至3月31日的财年净亏损1.71万亿日圆,约合132亿美元,这是该公司四十年历史上的最大财年亏损,相较上一财年近5万亿日圆的创纪录净利润出现急剧反转。
软银旗下规模1,000亿美元的Vision Fund及其后续基金上季度的投资损失是最大拖累因素。这些基金公布的上一财年投资损失约为290亿美元。Vision Fund自成立以来积累的收益,现在几乎有一半已蒸发殆尽。
所有这些亏损正迫使软银创始人孙正义(Masayoshi Son)向投资者辩解。他在周四的财报发布会上说,公司将继续将其资产货币化,并将制定更严格的投资标准。然而,考虑到市场已经下跌的幅度,前者可能具有一定的挑战性。
更苦的日子还在后头。科技股在本季度进一步下行,尤其是软银特别看好的那些未盈利但快速增长的股票。比如,软银集团的两项投资——中国网约车巨头滴滴(Didi Global Inc., DIDI)和韩国电商公司Coupang(CPNG),今年都下跌了近70%。
与此同时,软银集团的非上市初创企业投资组合的情况可能更糟。随着投资者将关注点从不计成本的不间断增长转向盈利能力,此类初创企业的资金很可能会枯竭,估值也将下降。
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中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司(Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., BABA, 9988.HK, 简称:阿里巴巴)也给软银集团带来冲击,这是软银的单一最大投资。由于会计处理的原因,阿里巴巴今年33%的股价跌幅并没有显示在软银的收益表中。但这仍拖累了软银的资产净值,资产净值是孙正义对该公司估值的首选指标。截至3月底,软银的资产净值为18.5万亿日圆,环比下降0.8万亿日圆。现在可能更低了。
该公司的长期观察者将会有错觉。互联网泡沫破灭后,软银的股价曾从峰值暴跌99%。去年,科技股的高估值又将软银股价推回至历史高位。
软银不计后果的投资狂欢现在将再次把自己拉回现实。