与大多数新兴市场(EM)国家一样,东南亚地区在全球通胀担忧和美元升值的下行压力下陷入困境。根据外交官(The Diplomat.)的一篇文章,美联储加息可能会削弱经济的盔甲,但它应该保持弹性。
利率上升将如何影响东南亚经济?
“我们看到股票暴跌。我们已经看到加密货币崩溃了。我们看到抵押贷款利率上升。我们看到新兴市场的资本外流,许多货币兑美元贬值,”詹姆斯·吉尔德写道。
“好消息是,我们知道美国即将加息,全球政策制定者,尤其是央行行长,已经有足够的时间准备,”Guild 进一步写道。
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新兴市场国家通常与当地货币的表现挂钩,尽管美元兑这些货币一直在上涨,但各国央行已经在预测美联储的这一举动。因此,货币政策措施可能已经到位以抵消利率上升。
Guild 写道:“该地区的许多中央银行已采取措施,准确地储备外汇储备,以便在这样的动荡时期为货币提供支持。” “例如,泰国银行在 2021 年结束时手头有2248 亿美元的外汇储备。印度尼西亚等其他国家的商品出口猛增,这有助于在短期内支撑经常账户并稳定货币。”
“与此同时,我们几乎肯定会看到整个地区的利率上升,因为各国央行希望通过提供更高的收益率来保持资本或吸引新的资本流动,”Guild 补充道。“这本身不会是一个问题。”
获得东南亚的投资敞口
如果最糟糕的股票抛售压力已经过去,希望在东南亚获得新兴市场敞口的投资者可以关注Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF (ASEA)。
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ASEA 力求提供与 FTSE/ASEAN 40 指数的价格和收益率表现大致相符的投资结果。基础指数追踪东南亚国家联盟 (ASEAN) 地区 40 家最大和最具流动性的公司的股票表现:新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国和菲律宾。
正如路透社报道所提到的,大宗商品的上涨主要集中在印度尼西亚和马来西亚。ASEA 有效地为这两个国家提供敞口,以此作为商品通胀的一种方式。
ASEA基金亮点:
- 有效获取广泛的东南亚证券篮子。
- 有针对性地暴露于特定区域。