过去一个月,棉花价格和相关交易所交易票据飙升,原因是干旱导致农作物减产,最新收成预计将是 13 年来的最低水平。
干旱导致作物大量减少,棉花 ETN 飙升
iPath B 系列彭博棉花子指数总回报 ETN (BAL )周二上涨 3.0%,过去一个月飙升 27.7%。与此同时,ICE 2 号棉花期货上涨 2.9% 至每磅 1.1685 美元。
根据美国农业部最新的作物产量报告,美国棉花产量将达到 1257 万包左右,为 2009 年以来的最低水平,最大产棉州德克萨斯州将造成近 500 万包的短缺年产量同比。
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德克萨斯州的棉花产量可能在 290 万包左右,而 2021 年为 770 万包,该州的条件如此严峻,以至于种植者可能会放弃春季种植的每 3 英亩土地中的 2 英亩。根据美国农业部的数据,西南地区的废弃率“处于历史高位”。总体而言,美国产量下降 28%,即 1257 万包,而 2021 年为 1752 万包。
据《华尔街日报》报道,美国农业市场观察人士警告称,美国持续的干旱可能导致农民放弃 1250 万英亩农田中的 40%,棉花收成是自重建时代或 1868 年以来的最小面积。
美国的一些地区正遭受有记录以来最热的天气,这导致农田干涸,导致农民称其退出,因为维持一些农田在经济上不再可行。
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例如,德克萨斯州狭长地带的农民 Brent Nelson 只使用了他 5,000 英亩土地中的 280 英亩。他指出,自去年 8 月以来,他的田地只下了大约 3 英寸的降雨,而每年平均降雨量约为 17 到 18 英寸。
因此,越来越多的农民放弃作物并依靠联邦作物保险来维持生计。