泛林集团对行业资本支出大幅放缓的预测有助于重置投资者预期,并推高芯片类股
芯片业寒冬将至或带来投资机会
对于半导体制造设备的制造商来说,寒冬将至。但这一前景却让投资者心头暖暖。
泛林集团(Lam Research Co., LRCX)周三晚间公布的第一财季业绩强劲。收入和营业利润双双超出华尔街预测,收入增长实际上比前两个季度加快;前两个季度,由于零部件短缺,泛林集团和许多同行无法将成品设备发货给客户,制约了收入增长。追赶出货进度将在短期内继续使泛林集团受益;该公司预计12月当季收入为51亿美元,较分析师预测高出6%。
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不过,泛林集团也提供了迄今为止最清晰明了的信号,即芯片行业自疫情爆发以来的繁荣周期正走向结束。该公司预计,明年全行业用于生产设备的资本支出将下降20%——这一数字已反映限制对华出口芯片设备的新规则的预期影响。
根据TechInsights的历史数据,这将是2009年以来此类资本支出的降幅之最。意味着支出只有700亿美元出头,大大低于今年早些时候许多人预期的1,000多亿美元。行业组织Semi上月末将其对2023年全球设备支出的预测下调至970亿美元,而6月份时发布的目标为1,090亿美元。
这种悲观看法通常会导致相关股票大跌,但泛林集团的股价周四前市跳涨8%。同类芯片设备股也涨势强劲;费城半导体指数(PHLX Semiconductor Index)上涨超过2%,相比之下,纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.5%。有分析师对这一预测热烈欢迎,认为这是对那些一直对入手该高度周期性行业犹豫不决的投资者进行的必要预期重置。
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泛林集团的业绩和预测也证实,芯片行业放缓的痛苦不会平均分摊。阿斯麦(ASML Holding NV, ASML)周三早些时候也公布了强劲的业绩,但预计明年业务不会受到重大冲击,因为需要其高端光刻设备的代工芯片制造商已排起长队;这些设备对最先进的生产工艺至关重要。相比之下,泛林集团大约60%的业务来自于内存市场,该市场的销售已经下滑,美光科技公司(Micron Technology Inc., MU)等主要生产商正在大幅缩减支出计划。
据FactSet,分析师预计泛林集团在2023日历年的收入将下降5%以上,而同期阿斯麦的收入将增长19%。但Stifel的Brian Chin表示,阿斯麦的独特地位使其对行业其他公司来说“不是一个很好的衡量标准”。这个意义上说,从泛林集团的更黑暗视角能看到更多阳光。