瑞信的困境加剧了人们对危机可能蔓延的担忧,眼下分析师们的预期与一周前发生急剧变化,认为美联储在年底前至少降息100个基点。
瑞信风波打乱对美联储利率预期,分析师料年底前降息100个基点
硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)和Signature Bank的倒闭引发了人们对危机可能蔓延的担忧,瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse Group AG, CS)的困境无异于火上浇油,眼下,这种担忧正让位于新的预期,即认为美国联邦储备委员会(简称:美联储)在年底前至少降息100个基点,也就是整整一个百分点。
根据芝商所(CME)的FedWatch工具,交易员们认为联邦基金利率目标在12月前降至3.5%-3.75%甚至更低的可能性为41.9%。目前的目标为4.5%-4.75%,意味着到美联储2023年的最后一次会议,降息幅度至少会达到100个基点。这与一周前相比发生了急剧变化,当时交易员们认为今年利率有相当大的机会升至6%并保持在这一水平。
- Size - S=US(4-6), M=US(8-10), L=US(12-14),...
- Feature - Smocked high waist, wide leg, loose fit...
- Occasion - Linen pants perfect for daily life,...
- Style - Lounging in linen is a dream in the weston...
- Wash - Simply machine or hand wash it/ air dry...
- Material: Casual womens summer tops is made from...
- Features: With a round neck/crewneck, cute batwing...
- Style: Womens blouses woven with a fine and...
- Match: The solid color basic short sleeve casual...
- Occasion: Suitable for a casual everyday look and...
- Size: S=US(4-6), M=US(8-10), L=US(12-14),...
- Designs: Crewneck, short roll sleeves, oversized...
- Style: This t-shirts is simple and versatile,...
- Occasions: This trendy tee will be your everyday...
- Care: Machine or hand wash cold, do not bleach....
- Size - Choose the perfect fit from S=US(2-4),...
- Features - This 2 piece outfit features a...
- Occasion - From summer parties to casual tourism,...
- Stylish Outfit Set - Embrace effortless style with...
- Washing - Dry clean recommended to avoid shrunk.
预期调整背后的原因是担心危机的蔓延可能不会仅仅局限于几家银行,此前瑞士信贷的最大股东告诉彭博(Bloomberg),不会提高在这家瑞士银行的持股。
就在上周,美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)还指出,可能需要重新加快加息步伐,不过他说决策者尚未就3月22日召开的下一次会议做出决定。交易员们现在认为下周暂停加息的可能性为50.5%,加息25个基点的可能性为49.5%。
BMO资本市场(BMO Capital Markets)的策略师Ian Lyngen和Ben Jeffery说,瑞士信贷目前备受关注,该行的股价跌至历史新低(跌幅超过20%),整个欧洲银行领域都回荡着不安情绪。他们说,投资者再度担忧起瑞士信贷的压力最终受控的程度,这种担忧将继续推动风险资产的表现,而美国国债已经因资本重新逃往优质资产而受益,这引发了周三收益率的下挫。
- Straight Leg Jeans with Raw Trim Hem: These high...
- The Silhouette of Womens Straight Leg Jeans: The...
- The Style of Wide Leg Jeans for Women: The novel...
- For Every Occasion: Whether it's a casual hangout...
- Care Instructions & Size for Womens Jeans:...
- Solid Hoodie: This versatile hoodie is a must-have...
- Oversized Comfort: The relaxed fit and oversized...
- Letter Graphic: The fashion letter graphics on...
- Suitable for All Occasions: This hoodie is perfect...
- Quality Materials: Made with a soft and breathable...
- plus size dresses for curvy women plus size summer...
- plus size casual dresses plus size wedding guest...
- vacation dresses for women 2024 party dresses for...
- floral wedding guest dress floral dresses for...
- flowy maxi dresses for women flowy summer dresses...
- 👙【Tankini Tank Top】: Two piece bathing...
- 👙【Boyshorts Bottom】: Sporty and flexible...
- 👙【Removable Padded】: The athletic two piece...
- 👙【Variety of Wearing】: 2 piece swimsuit top...
- 👙【Occasion】: Women tankini and shorts...
美国国债收益率在纽约交易中下挫,对政策敏感的2年期美国国债收益率下跌24.8个基点,至3.973%的近六个月低点。 与此同时,随着瑞士信贷风波放大了人们对银行的担忧,道琼斯指数和标普500指数收低。
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的Andrew Kenningham在一份报告中写道,瑞士信贷的问题让人再次提出疑问,即这是一场全球危机的开始,还是又一个“特异性”案例。Kenningham称,这是继去年9月英国国债市场危机和上周美国地区银行倒闭之后,几个月内第三度出现“一次性”问题,所以如果认为接下来不会有其他问题出现,那就太愚蠢了。