东方汇理资产管理投资机构的美国股票研究主管Craig Sterling表示,通胀放缓和今年美联储的几次降息可能有助于提振美国股市中的落后者,尤其是如果经济能避免衰退的话。
东方汇理资产管理(Amundi)投资机构的美国股票研究主管Craig Sterling表示,通胀放缓和今年美联储的几次降息可能有助于提振美国股市中的落后者,尤其是如果经济能避免衰退的话。
Sterling在周三的公司前景展望会上说,被称为美股“七雄”的巨型科技股去年平均上涨了111%,而标普500指数的其他成分股公司仅上涨了约3.5%。
包括苹果公司(Apple Inc., AAPL)、Alphabet Inc.(GOOG) (GOOGL)、亚马逊公司(Amazon.com Inc., AMZN)、Meta Platforms (META)、微软(Microsoft Corp., MSFT)、英伟达(Nvidia Corp., NVDA)和特斯拉(Tesla Inc., TSLA)的“七雄”股价在1月份继续走高,尽管“七雄”内部出现了一些分化。
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Sterling认为,2024年持有标普500指数“其余”成份股可能具有战略意义,因为东方汇理资产管理认为美联储降息的幅度可能不会像很多人预期的那样大,而且“持久的”盈利复苏可能要到今年下半年才会确立,盈利复苏可能会刺激更广泛的股市上涨走势。
“我们尚未看到利率对盈利的影响,”Sterling称。“我不希望到时候投资于预期市盈率为20倍或30倍的股票,”他说,他这里是指“七雄”股票的预期市盈率相对标普500指数其他成份股大约16倍的预期市盈率偏高。
Sterling还警告说,由于美联储计划使银行紧急贷款计划到期,金融系统的过剩流动性在继续流失。该计划是近一年前硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)倒闭后推出的,旨在帮助避免更广泛的银行业危机。
东方汇理资产管理固定收益和外汇策略主管Paresh Upadhyaya说,从另一方面看,约26万亿美元的美国国债市场近期企稳,这使得期限较长的债券看起来很有吸引力。
虽然基准10年期美国国债收益率去年10月份触及5%,创16年新高,但12月份回落至4%,最近几周则更为稳定,在4.2%左右。
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“似乎所有投资者都应该配置,”Upadhyaya说。“想都不用想。”
(本文译自MarketWatch。MarketWatch由《华尔街日报》母公司道琼斯运营,但MarketWatch独立于道琼斯通讯社和《华尔街日报》。)