国际股票跑赢美股,投资者出海淘货

今年伊始美国股指大多走高,但投资者正越来越多地在海外市场上淘便宜货。近几个月来,海外公司股票和股指出现了大幅反弹

国际股票跑赢美股,投资者出海淘货

今年伊始美国股指大多走高,但投资者正越来越多地在海外市场上淘便宜货。

根据路孚特理柏(Refinitiv Lipper)的数据,今年截至3月1日,投资者向购买国际股票的美国共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)净投入144亿美元,同时从美国国内股票基金撤出341亿美元。

投资者对国际股票的热捧,助推了海外公司股票的反弹。以美元计,追踪发达国家和新兴市场股票的MSCI明晟所有国家(不包括美国)全球指数(MSCI All Country World ex USA index)今年以来攀升了5.1%,跑赢了标普500指数,后者同期涨幅为3.8%。

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区域股指的攀升速度甚至更快。今年以来,泛大陆的欧洲斯托克600指数上涨了7.2%,上证综合指数上涨6.2%,英国富时100指数攀升了4.5%,日本日经指数上涨4.4%。

最近美国股票基金遭遇撤资表明,投资者对2023年的市场反弹缺乏信心。他们已连续九周从美国国内股票基金撤资,为此类基金自2016年6月以来持续时间最长的一轮资金流出。

与此同时,投资者和分析师称,全球经济基本面正在发生变化,这增强了分散投资、买入国际股票的吸引力。

路孚特理柏追踪的股票类别中,国际股票基金获得注资是一个少见的亮点。今年以来,吸引现金净流入的其他类别只有派息股和小型股基金。

在2008年金融危机之后的十多年里,由于美国经济走势强劲、美国公司在全球占据主导地位,美国股市表现优于外国股市。去年,围绕利率上升、通胀居高不下和经济衰退迫近的担忧拖累标普500指数全年累计下跌19%,美股涨势就此结束。

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去年大部分时间,由于投资者权衡全球地缘政治和经济风险,美国以外的股票遭到冷遇。俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵造成供应短缺和能源价格飙升,使欧洲本已高企的通胀面临恶化威胁。在亚洲,中国严格的动态清零政策阻碍了全球增长,侵蚀了在中国有业务敞口的企业的利润。

尽管美国以外经济体面临的挑战仍然存在,但一些投资者表示,他们相信最糟糕的时候已经过去。能源价格现在远低于2022年的峰值,有助于缓解欧元区通胀。中国官方已经放弃疫情时期的限制措施,并减轻对国内科技公司施加的压力。

许多投资者认为外国股票更具价值,因为它们的价格远低于相应的美国股票。根据FactSet的数据,标普500指数成分股公司基于未来12个月预期利润的市盈率大约是18倍。相比之下,以本币计算,欧洲斯托克600指数的市盈率为13倍左右,香港恒生指数的市盈率约为10倍。