Should I dine indoors this winter?

With Covid on the rise, is it safe to dine indoors, especially in local restaurants in NYC? — Emily, New York, New York

At this time last year, I was able to recite the number of Covid cases in New York from memory. Covid was so ingrained in daily life then that monitoring viral risk was as much a part of my routine as checking the weather. When I sat down to write this newsletter, though, I realized I actually have no idea how many Covid cases are floating around the city right now.

It turns out, according to the municipal data, there are on average about 270 new Covid infections on any given day. That figure has dropped from a September peak of 1,483. (Of course, there’s probably a lot more Covid floating around than that because most of us aren’t going to the doctor or calling public health officials when we test positive.)

For many people, Covid has faded into the background. They’re tired of thinking about it, so they don’t. However, some people are still deeply worried. It all depends on risk tolerance, says Katrine Wallace, an epidemiologist at University of Illinois at Chicago.

“At the beginning of the pandemic, we had a deadly novel virus circulating for which we had no immunity, no vaccine, and no treatments,” Wallace says. “Because we all had the exact same lack of immunity, it was very easy to make sweeping population recommendations that applied to everyone.”

Recommendations in the early stages of the pandemic included social distancing, masking and staying home. As time went on, people got tired of being cooped up and having outdoor meals in the freezing cold, bundled up in outerwear and blankets. Covid also became far less lethal, allowing both health officials and the general public to relax a bit.

“Increased population immunity and the availability of vaccines and treatments are the main reasons we no longer see closures or returns to strict mandates during Covid surges,” says Wallace.

But some people are still at risk of getting very ill from the virus. Some people may also simply be feeling more cautious than others — or they want to avoid getting sick during the holiday season.

So the health advice experts are doling out is more tailored to both your vulnerability and personal preferences.

To go back to the question of indoor dining, ask yourself: How worried are you about getting sick? And are you vaccinated and boosted? Will you be around loved ones with risk factors, such as illness or age, that make them more likely to become severely ill?

To assess how big the risk of illness is in your area, which might inform your thinking, there are a couple of data sources Wallace suggests investigating. They include Covid data from wastewater (New Yorkers can find state data here) and ER Covid trends.

She also points out there are ways to make indoor dining safer. You can visit restaurants during slower periods, or pick places that are relatively spacious. Wallace says she also carries a carbon dioxide monitor with her to check whether places are well-ventilated. But keep in mind there’s no way to completely eliminate the possibility of catching Covid.

“Zero risk is not realistic,” says Wallace.

As a healthy person in my mid-thirties, personally I find my risk tolerance mostly depends on whether I have a social or work event coming up that I don’t want to miss if I get sick. — Kristen V. Brown