Is there a “new Covid?”

Is there a new Covid out there?

Are there any signs of a new strain of Covid? — Gary, New Orleans, Louisiana

There was a stretch when it felt like there was a new variant of Covid about every second, which can make it feel like we’re about due for another one to come upend life as we know it. And in fact, the phrase “new Covid” has recently made its way into headlines, and has trended on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

The new Covid stories refer to the BA.2.86 strain. But the reality is, calling it “new” isn’t totally accurate, says Katrine Wallace, an epidemiologist at University of Illinois at Chicago.

BA.2.86 has been spreading around the world since at least this summer, she says. Its presence in the US was very small then, but this week the CDC said the strain is starting to account for more domestic Covid cases. That update “attracted a lot of attention,” Wallace says.

As of Monday, BA.2.86 accounts for an estimated 5% to 15% of currently circulating variants in the US, with the highest proportions in and around New York and New Jersey.

Another reason people are paying attention to BA.2.86 is because the variant has more than 30 mutations to the spike protein, according to Wallace. That’s the part of the virus that binds to human cells, and what’s targeted by vaccines.

“Any time we see a variant with a lot of mutations, it is tracked closely because there is a concern that we will have potential for greater spread, more severe disease or that perhaps vaccines or treatments would not be as effective,” she says.

So far, though, it doesn’t look like this not-so-new variant is quite cause for panic. A risk assessment from the World Health Organization released on Nov. 21 said that the global prevalence of the variant is 8.9%, a similar rate to the US — even though BA.2.86 has been circulating elsewhere for longer. 

“This is good news,” says Wallace. It means BA.2.86 probably isn’t any more disruptive than other variants now circulating.

Covid tests and treatments also seem to work against it, and the clinical symptoms don’t appear more severe. Data from vaccine manufacturers also indicates that the antibodies from the new vaccines recognize and neutralize newer variants, including BA.2.86.

So while BA.2.86 shouldn’t panic you, says Wallace, it’s a good excuse to go out and get the new vaccine. — Kristen V. Brown

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