The case for combining fallen angels and low volatility high yield

By Salvatore J. Bruno, Chief Investment Officer; and Kelly Ye, Director of Research at IndexIQ. . The past year saw high yield bonds rally strongly in the wake of March’s Covid-driven selloff as growth rebounded and a widely expected wave of corporate bankruptcies failed to materialize.

Source: The case for combining fallen angels and low volatility high yield

Still, the volatility had an impact on investors, and different high yield bond portfolios performed differently. From February 28, 2020, through March 31, 2020, low volatility high yield fell by 6.13% (using the S&P US High Yield Low Volatility Corporate Bond Index as proxy).

Fallen angels – the bonds of one-time investment-grade companies that have since seen their credit quality decline – lost 13.10% over the same time period (with the ICE BofAML US Fallen Angel High Yield Index as proxy).

This divergence reflects, in part, the underlying characteristics of the securities. Fallen angels tend to have a longer maturity and are, therefore, more sensitive to both credit and interest rate changes. Low volatility seeks to invest in bonds with lower credit risk, as indicated by the “Duration Times Spread” metric, which are typically less sensitive to these factors. This can also be seen in how the two strategies recovered in the months following the start of the Covid crisis. Fallen angels led the way, up 25.04% for the period April 30, 2020, through March 31, 2021, compared to 8.63% for low volatility. By way of comparison, the high yield benchmark, the ICE BofAML US High Yield Index, climbed 18.79% over that time.

In combination?

Both fallen angels and low vol strategies have attractive up and down participation relative to the high yield benchmark, but with different risk factors. Low volatility captures about 0.79 of up beta, and 0.47 of down beta compared to the benchmark. The comparable numbers for fallen angels are 1.25 and 1.10. This suggests that a strategy that combines the two has the potential to provide a more optimal solution for investors, and our research has shown this to be the case.

Introducing fallen angels to a portfolio with a 100% low volatility high yield strategy, investors experienced higher returns but lower drawdown risk as compared to the high yield benchmark until the allocation to low volatility fell below 30%. Based on the current 12-month dividend yield of the representative ETFs for the three indices (the IQ S&P High Yield Low Volatility Bond ETF (HYLV US) for low volatility, iShares Fallen Angels USD Bond ETF (FALN US) for fallen angels, and iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG US) for the benchmark), mixing up to 30% of the low volatility high yield strategy with fallen angels gave investors similar or higher income than the high yield benchmark.

FEATURED PRODUCTIQ S&P High Yield Low Volatility Bond ETF (HYLV US)– Tracks the S&P US High Yield Low Volatility Corporate Bond Index which comprises US dollar-denominated, high-yield corporate bonds that are expected to have lower volatility relative to the broad USD high-yield corporate bond market. – Houses $100m in assets; comes with an expense ratio of 0.40%.

Risks

High yield can be an attractive source of income, but it’s not without risks. Credit spreads – the difference in yield between the high yield benchmark and 10-year Treasuries – are closely watched by investors as a measurement of risk. In March 2020, spreads pushed out to in excess of 10% as Treasuries rallied and high yield sold off; more recently, that number stood at 2.39%, near 10-year lows. Those spreads are subject to widening as investors continually reassess market and economic conditions.

Interest rates are another potential concern. While the Fed has committed to keeping short-term rates low for the foreseeable future, investors have continued to express concerns over future inflation, and yields on the 10-year have risen well off of last year’s low, up to over 1.6% from below 0.7% in April 2020. Rates seem likely to move higher as the economy picks up, but that may not be all bad for the asset class as better growth can make it easier to amortize debt.

Not all high yield is the same. Dependent upon an investor’s risk appetite and the macroeconomic environment, a combination of fallen angels and low volatility can offer a more compelling risk/return profile than the high yield benchmark.

(The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of ETF Strategy.)