Some pundits and skeptics are voicing real doubts about the S&P 500’s ability to deliver a third straight year of twenty percent gains. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) senior market strategist Scott Wren sees a three-peat as unlikely. He has a 2025 target of 6,600, which translates to a return closer to ten percent and roughly eight percent from current levels. That is still a healthy outcome, even if it falls short of the past two years.
This brings us to an investor featured on r/fatFIRE who is extremely anxious about what comes next. Convinced that a recession is imminent, they are considering shifting about ninety percent of their 401(k) into cash. That is a drastic move based on little more than a feeling.
It is also not one I would recommend unless their personal financial situation has changed in a meaningful way, such as an unexpected medical cost or another major expense that needs near-term liquidity. Anyone who truly needs cash quickly for retirement should speak with a financial advisor before making a decision rooted in fear.
The stock market had a run. It’s okay to be skeptical.
Either way, it is risky to assume that 2025 will be a weak year simply because 2023 and 2024 delivered some of the strongest returns in recent memory. When viewed as a two year burst, the pace of gains looks unsustainably fast unless it ends with a correction, a bear market, or a bubble deflating. But momentum depends heavily on the window you choose to measure.
The past two years have certainly produced a blistering run that echoes the late 1990s. Many investors have compared the current AI driven surge to 1997, 1998, or even 1999. Yet if you zoom out to the period since the late 2021 peak, the picture changes. The S&P 500 has risen a respectable 28.3 percent at the time of writing. That is strong but not overly hot when you factor in the 2022 bear market. A gain of nearly thirty percent across roughly three years lines up far more closely with long term market expectations if you use early 2022 as your starting point.
Be more calculated, and don’t make moves when feeling fearful.
Either way, it is unwise to make a sudden shift in your portfolio simply because you believe a correction is coming. Recessions and their timing are notoriously hard to predict, even for experienced economists. And even if someone managed to call the recession with precision, there is no guarantee the stock market would respond the way they expect. The stock market is not the economy.
Does that mean investors should stay fully invested and hope for another year with a twenty percent return?
Of course not. The goal should be long term investing with a focus on buying value when it appears and trimming positions that have become overvalued. With a thoughtful asset allocation and some cash reserved for future opportunities, investors can prepare for an eventual downturn without resorting to extreme actions like liquidating most or all of their portfolios.
The bottom line
Timing the market is not advisable, even after a hot two-year run for the S&P 500. If your life circumstances change and you need the money, contact an advisor and take some profits off the table. As for making moves on recession hunches, I understand the hefty opportunity costs of doing so.
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