在美联储一些主要官员表示加息幅度可能需要超过惯例的25个百分点后,华尔街几家最大的银行现在认为美联储将大幅度加息
美国大银行现在预计美联储将更大幅度加息
在美联储一些主要官员表示加息幅度可能需要超过惯例的25个百分点后,华尔街几家最大的银行现在认为美联储将大幅度加息。
最近几天,各大银行纷纷预测美联储今年将有几次半个百分点的加息。美联储通常在每次会议上只会将联邦基金利率目标上调0.25个百分点,但面对通胀飙升带来40年来最严重的物价压力,经济学家认为美联储现在可能会采取更激进的行动。
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摩根大通(J.P. Morgan, JPM)经济学家Michael Feroli在周三发给客户的报告中写道,美联储官员明显希望加息50个基点。他说,为避免抵抗美联储想做的事,摩根大通更新了利率预期,将5月和6月加息25个基点的预期改为每次50个基点,并预计在7月及之后将恢复每次加息25个基点。
Feroli还写道,到明年联邦基金利率应该会达到略低于3%的水平。
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上周,花旗集团(Citibank, C)的经济学家在一份研究报告中表示,他们预计联邦公开市场委员会5月、6月、7月和9月的会议将加息0.5个百分点。美国银行(Bank of America, BOC)仍预计5月加息25个基点,但认为6月和7月的会议上将会加息50个基点。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs & Co., GS)本月早些时候表示,美联储可能在5月和6月分别加息0.5个百分点。
期货市场也认为美联储5月加息50个基点的可能性很高,联邦基金利率期货周四显示,美联储5月加息50个基点的概率接近70%。