标准普尔 500 交易所交易基金在 2022 年上半年大跌,基准指数遭受了自 1970 年以来一年中最糟糕的六个月,但投资者不应将此视为市场未来走势的好坏迹象。
标普 500 ETF 在上半年遭遇了大幅下跌,现在怎么办?
年初至今,SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY)、 iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: IVV)和 Vanguard 500 Index (NYSEARCA: VOO)均下跌约 19.3%。
据彭博社报道,根据标普道琼斯指数数据,标普 500 指数在上半年和下半年的表现之间几乎没有历史相关性。
当前的市场环境略微反映了标准普尔 500 指数在 1970 年上半年通胀上升期间的 21%。同年最后六个月,该基准指数也反弹了 27%。
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2020年,标准普尔500指数上半年下跌4%,下半年上涨21%。
尽管有相似之处,但警告投资者,这并不意味着我们都摆脱了最糟糕的回调。
自 1957 年以来,在标普 500 指数在上半年呈现负回报的那几年里,基准指数也在大约 50% 的时间里继续呈现负回报,标普指数投资策略高级总监 Anu Ganti道琼斯告诉彭博社。
“根据过去的表现,很难知道或预测会发生什么,”甘蒂说。
Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management 的首席投资官 Brent Schutte 认为,在市场已经消化了温和衰退的可能性之后,2022 年剩余时间的可能性看起来更好。
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“我认为担心的是,这个时期就像 1970 年代一样,需求下降,但通胀并未随之下降,”舒特告诉彭博社。“这意味着美联储将不得不继续加息并推高利率,这将导致更严重的衰退。这不是我看到的情况。”
尽管如此,舒特警告说,试图根据过去的表现预测市场的未来走势。
“我对过去与未来之间没有关联并不感到惊讶,”舒特补充道。“我从来没有找到靠后视镜赚钱的方法。”