富国银行投资研究所的高级全球市场策略师Scott Wren警告说,美国股市在通胀降温迹象出现后的最新涨势不太可能持续。
策略师:美国裁员和利润率受压情况才刚刚开始
富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的高级全球市场策略师Scott Wren警告说,美国股市在通胀降温迹象出现后的最新涨势不太可能持续。
相反,Wren认为,这在很大程度上依赖于通货膨胀也许开始降温的一些迹象,引发了对美联储将“转向”或暂停加息的预期,从而推动股市走出又一波涨势。
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“在过去几个月经济数据发布时,我们已经看到这种情况发生了多次,”Wren在周三的致客户的报告中写道。但他的团队表示,如果10月份消费者价格指数(CPI)“比平均预期高出0.2个百分点(甚至0.1个百分点)”,他们怀疑市场反应可能不会“那么出色”。
“在我们看来,如果政策转向,通胀需要更快地下降,这最有可能发生在经济衰退期间,”Wren的团队写道。“我们认为,我们只是刚刚开始看到裁员和利润率受压情况的出现。”
CPI是一个备受关注的通货膨胀指标,10月份美国CPI升幅为7.7%,低于今年夏天达到的逾9%高位。
裁员在主要科技公司最为明显,包括Facebook母公司Meta Platforms (META)的裁员计划,以及Twitter在被特斯拉(Tesla, TSLA)首席执行官马斯克(Elon Musk)以440亿美元收购后的裁员。
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富国银行投资研究所的团队表示,他们预计美国经济将在今年年底或2023年初陷入衰退,并且会持续到大约明年中。
“我们建议投资者不要追逐当前的股市涨势,”该团队指出。
(本文译自MarketWatch)